Results Oriented

Note that this post is about my own data and what I learned from my history. It’s mostly just my personal insights, and probably won’t actually help you in any way unless you’re interested in doing something similar yourself.

Recently, a dude from the internet took a few lines of code written by Ben Peebles-Mundy and updated the user interface to develop Kavu.ru – a website that allows you to turn the giant slab of data from your Planeswalker Point history into something usable.

The system consolidates all of your information into simple, easy to digest bites that give a basic picture of how well you perform in a variety of categories. For example, the following is a selection from my results (I cut out a lot of chaff here, but you get the idea):

Overall Stats:
Overall record: 782-375-49
Win percentage ignoring draws: 67.588591

Booster Draft:
Overall record: 138-50-18
Win percentage ignoring draws: 73.404255

Standard:
Overall record: 233-116-11
Win percentage ignoring draws: 66.762178

Sealed:
Overall record: 174-100-8
Win percentage ignoring draws: 63.503650

Modern:
Overall record: 139-59-7
Win percentage ignoring draws: 70.202020

Extended:
Overall record: 42-22-3
Win percentage ignoring draws: 65.625000

Magic Team Grand Prix:
Overall record: 8-3-0
Win percentage ignoring draws: 72.727273

Friday Night Magic:
Overall record: 65-28-2
Win percentage ignoring draws: 69.892473

Magic Pro Tour Qualifier:
Overall record: 221-134-8
Win percentage ignoring draws: 62.253521

Magic Grand Prix:
Overall record: 76-43-1
Win percentage ignoring draws: 63.865546

So all of this is great, and it’s a good glimpse into your strengths and weaknesses, but by entering your data with some variables separated, you can get a much more interesting picture.

I decided to break my numbers down by year, but instead of working with calendar years, I chose block years. There are two main reasons for this decision:

1. It makes it easy to read results for specific formats, like Zendikar Draft or RTR Standard.
2. It’s very clean. My first event in the system was the Onslaught Prerelease. I took a break during Time Spiral and Lorwyn, and my first event back was the Shards Release. Also, there are only a few weeks until the next rotation. It all split up very well.

I left out draws. I don’t think they really say anything important, and the data is much easier to read without them. I also combined Modern and Extended into one category since they never overlap and they’re pretty similar.

Here’s the data:

All Std Ex/Md Draft Sealed FNM PTQ GP
ONS 22-27
44.89
9-10
47.36
2-6
25.00
11-11
50.00
2-6
25.00
MD5 38-39
49.35
20-13
60.60
9-8
52.94
7-11
38.88
7-5
58.33
1-2
33.33
CBS 23-13
63.88
6-4
60.00
14-7
66.66
3-2
60.00
11-5
68.75
RGD 47-26
64.38
40-19
67.79
7-7
50.00
12-4
75.00
4-3
57.14
TS 3-1
75.00
3-1
75.00
LMSE 1-2
33.33
1-2
33.33
Ala 235-149
61.19
34-25
57.62
14-8
63.63
152-93
62.04
35-23
60.34
26-12
68.42
30-25
54.54
7-2
77.77
ZEN 193-88
68.68
82-37
68.90
16-8
66.66
29-10
74.35
62-31
66.66
28-10
73.68
36-18
66.66
11-4
73.33
Scars 187-96
66.07
56-36
60.86
42-22
65.62
39-9
81.25
41-24
63.07
18-4
81.81
45-38
54.21
14-8
63.63
INN 305-148
67.32
88-49
64.23
55-23
70.51
73-26
73.73
66-33
66.66
41-20
67.21
80-46
63.49
33-19
63.46
RTR 274-123
69.01
78-29
72.89
84-36
70.00
24-13
64.86
64-39
62.13
4-2
66.66
96-50
65.75
37-19
66.07

Now we’ve got something to work with.

There’s a big gap right in the middle where i took a 20-ish month break. For the most part, that data is excluded. The single draft I did each year in that time isn’t going to provide any insight.

Let’s look at some more interesting years:

ONS – This one is sweet. I didn’t have a winning record in any format, which is okay because I was 15-16 at the time and was mostly playing at my kitchen table. I tagged along to a PTQ with an Elves-Biorythm deck at a time when people were playing Pernicious Deeds. It didn’t go well.

MD5 – This is when I first started playing at my local shop. I had a winning draft and standard record, mostly because my town had something like 15 regular players, none of whom had ever played outside my suburb.

CBS – My first year of college. Not much going on.

RGD – I played my fair share of drafts at Mayhem in Ames, and a few during my summer back on the east coast. I didn’t know any of the good players from Ames, but they weren’t around very often so the events were easy. At the end of this year I sold my collection and got out of the game.

Alara – I won the release event for Shards of Alara, taking home a box. I then proceeded to do something like 40 drafts off the winnings from that box alone. You’ll note that I performed worse this year than during RGD, and I mostly attribute this to hanging out with the better players, who started crushing me on a daily basis.

ZEN – Fortunately, a good crushing is healthy, and all the lessons i learned in the past year started paying off. I moved to Cedar Rapids, which was a much softer environment than Ames, leaving me free to tromp the domains with all my newfound skills. I got better in pretty much every format, and actually had my best PTQ season record, despite only having two or three top8s across the whole year.

Scars – I took a big hit, likely for two reasons – One: I hated the sealed format. Drafting was awesome, but I got crushed in back-to-back-to-back-to-back sealed PTQs. And two: I chose not to play Cawblade when there was an option to play Cawblade. You can see how that went.

INN – A big change happened this year – Planeswalker Points. That meant i was drafting more, FNMing more, etc. I also had my fair share of shitty GPs, including my 0-5 at GP Indy.

RTR- The numbers show this as my best win-rate, and it certainly feels like it. Best standard win rate overall which makes sense given my past season. I went down a little bit in quite a few categories though. Sealed in this format was a lot harder than Innistrad. My prereleases also didn’t go well, contributing to my drop in that field. I did significantly fewer drafts outside of our team events.

I also want to note that my win rate in Modern is more than 70% and I’ve never top8’d a modern PTQ, even across more than a dozen events.

A few charts to show my progress.

This is my total win rate over time. I cut out those two years where i played seven total matches. Both creeping upwards and stabilizing, which makes me optimistic.

PTQ win rate, which is all over the place. If i had taken the Scars season more seriously, I think i’d have much better numbers overall.

Standard looks very similar to my PTQ rate in recent years, but had a much easier start, as should be expected.

My draft numbers have trended downwards, which i’m going to blame on drafting with better people in real events. I repeatedly got crushed in GTC and DGR events, so I’m looking forward to turning these numbers around in the next few months.

This song is the nuts:

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One thought on “Results Oriented

  1. Dems data.

    I am a couple points behind you in overall win rate. But in many ways my data align with yours; just under 70% win rate overall, consistent results after being engaged in magic. Very interesting.

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